Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Price Hike: Mind Boggling Justification

I have to confess, one can never stop feeling being amazed (or amused?, I am confused), by the justifications made  by the people in power whenever there is a price hike, when they increased the price of sugar, they claimed that they have the well being and health of the people close to their heart, less sugar is better, so indirectly they are forcing the rakyat to lessen sugar intake (OMG, and you doubted them, shame on you...wink...wink).When they increase the water tariff, it was done to save mother nature, too many people wasting water unnecessarily, ( isk...isk...what a noble intention, could be considered for the Nobel Prize). So they are left with no other choice, but to increase the water tariiff to force you to use water wisely (what a master plan! Bravo!).Now they are increasing the electricity tariff,the numero uno of Malaysia is saying that, that Government is doing this with a heavy heart (yeah...very heavy heart), the reason is too much wastage because the price is low (why, dont believe ah?). He further claimed (without blinking his eye, I felt so...),  if the country continues to impose imposing low tariff rates, malaysia will not be able to develop alternative energy as this require higher cost, and that if the current rates are retained, they will not provide profit for the investors in the alternative energy sector (Wow, what a marvellous master strategist we have spearheading our country, Why,? You dont think so?). I feel so touched....we are all short sighted, our leaders on the other hand are far sighted (in fact very very far sighted)

Sometimes I wonder where they get all the spin doctors from, Mars or Pluto?...damn they are good....(or the rakyat make them look good?).(p/s spin doctors  are rare breed that are most sought after (about the same as British Bulldogs or Tibetan Mongrels) that can spin good news to look like bad news..vice versa).....
adios for now.....a.h.baharom

IPPs agreement: Why the contradicting statement?

Intriguingly the Maharajah (I meant the comedian) Peter Chin came ot with the clarification that the government cannot compel the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) to be made public as they are signed by private entities. On the other hand, DPM stressed that for now, there’s no such proposal yet to declassify the agreements (only God knows, why in the first place it was classified under Official Secrets Act, a PPA is a legal contract between an electricity generator and a power purchaser. It is likely that the PPA would detail rates and price of fuel purchased by Petronas, the national oil and gas company) so we have not made a decision, he further added  that the government had nothing to hide.(Yes Sir we completely believed you).“We don’t want people to say that the government is hiding something or denying access to information to whatever that was already mutually agreed…(Aren't it crystal clear that the Government is indeed trying to hide something....mmmhhh...something fishy is definitely going on) “But of course there will always be a review from time to time. Whether we want the PPA to be an open document, we shall see first, whether there’s a need for it,” he told reporters. But wait a second.......... Maharaja Chin said otherwise....
He said that the PPA is signed between  several independent power producers (IPP) and national utility Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB).He further claimed that his Ministry fully support if both parties agreed to make the documents public.Whom do we trust? The DPM or the Minister......Sigh! Both statements issued by two importang people holding critical post in the Goverrnment...GOD help us......ciao...a.h.baharom

Monday, May 30, 2011

Power Tariff Hike will have minimal Impact on Inflation rate: They gotta be kidding

Peter Chin should not be called Energy Minister, in fact he should be addressed as the Hyena-G Minister, because he is an ultimate entertainer, without failing to make people to laugh hysterically...like a Hyena. In fact if he ever took part in Maharaja Lawak, he will win hands down, (Jambu, Jozan, Sepah and Nabil are no match for him) (Note:- For those who are not familiar with Maharaja Lawak, it is a reality show for comedians) His latest statement made be burst with laughter, it really tickles the bone (I believe most of you felt the same too).He claimed that ''Low electricity users such as domestic or commercial  users, including the cottage industry and food outlet operators will not feel the pinch as "they do not use electricity to fry kuey teow or to fry rice" (yeap, you've read it right, I too couldn't believe my eyes when I read the news today (The Star page 4). You gotta be kidding. who appointed this Joker to the Cabinet, he is not fit to become a member of parliament, let alone a Minister, if this is the kind of statement that he is capable of coming out, the whole world will be laughing at us. Mr Minister, I guess these people (both the lower incomer group and food outlet operators) have solar powered shops and houses and charcoal powered refrigerators, kerosene powered lights, human powered fan,hydro powered utensils...OMG, which planet you come from? And he keep insisting that IPPs doesnt enjoy subsidy from the Government, but rather foregone profits...I wish he could go and fly a kite...and to all the rakyat, please (I beg you) do not elect these kind of Jokers to the Parliament....bye for now........a.h.baharom

Power Tariff Hike: Who would be hit hard

Earlier today, Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Peter Chin said that for those using 301kW to 1000kW units, the tariff has been raised from 0.1 to 10 percent, or RM0.07 to RM30.30 beginning June 1.He further quipped that those using below 301kW (equivalent to RM77.00) would be spared and they would not be affected. Is it that simple? What he is saying is the direct impact, what about the indirect impact? As been pointed out by  Ratings Agency Malaysia chief economist Yeah Kim Leng, food prices are expected to increase with the announcement of electricity tariff hikes, as the food production industry are major users of electricity.He further elaborated that, the industry would be heavily affected by the progressive tariff hike. Though roughly seventy-five percent (75%) of households escape the direct effect of the tariff hike but they will have to bear the burden as producers will definitely pass on the higher costs to consumers. The inflationary pressure is unavoidable, and suddenly all the so-called e-con-no-miss who vehemently protested when the petrol subsidy cut reprieve (and by claiming that it have minimal impact on inflation) suddenly start to sing a different tune, now (after fierce reaction to their negative stand), they are finally admitting that any subsidy cut on petrol price, would indeed have inflationary impact, and government should not cut the subsidies.  Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Peter Chin also announced that users whose electricity bills is less than RM20 will have to pay their bills beginning Dec 31, 2011. Although for some, this might be a small amount, but for the low-income group, it is quite significant, and imagine they will also be facing a double impact albeit the expected increase in food prices.  Although the statement by the Minister, (from the naked eyes at least) shows as though the low-income group (or low energy users, whichever way you want to look at it) would be spared, the harsh reality is they are the one who will be hit hard, imagine a big chunk or portion of their income is spent on food compared to well to do or high income earners........adios.......a.h.baharom

Thursday, May 26, 2011

The difference between an Economist and E-con-no-miss

An Economist is a specialist in economics.or an economical person.A person who calls oneself as an Economist should be the one who economizes, or manages domestic or other concerns with frugality; one who expends money, time, or labour, judiciously, and without waste.True blue Economist (especially those who are in positions to make policy decisions, or advice the policy makers) in Malaysia are a dying breed, save for a few, but the problem is most of these true blue Economist are Academicians, and most of their grievance are either neglected or not respected and falls on deaf ears.On the other hand we have an influx or over supply of E-con-no-miss, these people are the ones who formulate policies or advice policy makers, these are the glamour searching, publicity seeking, camera friendly, media frenzy,apple polishing...( I can't seem to be running out of words to describe them....only running out of time and space). Without fail, without any MISS, these people continue to CON...the rakyat, justifying the unjustifiable, rationalising the non-rational...and the great  (or is it worse?) part is, they could do it with a straight face and without even an ounce of remorse. Shame on them...
GOD help us........adios....a.h.baharom
.

Economist or E-Con-No-Miss?


In an article produced by the Malaysian Insider, two so called economist blasted the Government for holding back the planned subsidy cut, the first was RAM Holdings Bhd chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng, who claimed that the money used to keep pump prices at current levels could have been put to “more productive use” such as bolstering Malaysia’s technology and innovation base to make the country more competitive The second comment was from Jupiter Securities research head Pong Teng Siew who felt delaying fuel subsidy cuts was “not the right choice” said it was critical that the government not reduce the quality of public services to pay for the higher than expected subsidy bill. With due respect, both these people either do not see the real picture (chances are slim, they are called ECONOMIST.) or refuse to see the bigger picture ( like the umpire in a wrestling match)...or just pure apple polishers, or are part of the 'spin' factory, whereby later when the Government, slashes the subsidies will quote these E-Con-No-Miss. I have maintained all these while that all kind of market distortion including subsidies are indeed bad for the economy, but we have to look at the bigger picture, the Malaysian Economy is leaking badly (kindly refer leak here,leak there,leak everywhere blog entry). All these leaks are draining our  hard earned money (yes...the Rakyat's money) , these leaks if plugged or corrected have far fetching  positive results compared to the mere subsidy saved.The above mentioned E-Con-No-Miss  also failed to mentioned about the subsidies to the IPPs (oopppss..apologies, my fault, not subsidies, but foregone profit by the Petronas). These jokers also fail to address the spiralling impact on the prices which will be caused by the increase in Petrol prices, which will hit hard the lower income (or they don't bother?) .Then another E-Con-No-Miss, this time from Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd Wan Suhaimi Saidi said that he was unsure Malaysia as a net oil-exporting nation would be able to offset the rising cost of fuel subsidies despite additional revenue from higher crude oil price (Please tell me that we do not have many of his species around, if not....GOD help us) But what makes me sad (or was it angry?) is when they suggested that biting the bullet earlier would mean less pain in the future The subsidy cuts when our backs are to the wall will be very much sharper. Yeah right, the rakyat (especially the lower income) bite the bullet while they dance the night away... ....bye for now.....a.h.baharom.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Subsidy Cut Reprieve:Hold the Celebration

PUTRAJAYA (May 25, 2011): The prices for RON95, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) will remain for now

- Domestic Trade, Co-operatives and Consumerism Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob-.

When cornered by journalist, the Minister vehemently denied that this is due to to the looming general election ( Do you honestly believe him?. And I hate to say...there..I told you so). The risk is just too high for them, the reaction would be too extreme.Asked if there will be further reduction in subsidies if the global fuel price increases, he said that the government will “cross the bridge when we get there”.(Yeah right, the bridge is after the General Election)

“If it increases drastically, we will see. That is why I said the (subsidy rationalisation) study is continuous,” said Ismail Sabri.(What study? Who is studying?,Is the study on the impact of the grassroot or rakyats reaction?)

He also urged the public not to speculate on the matter as the government will take into consideration all angles before making a decision on the matter.

But the most 'fake sounding' statement is the one below:-

“The people should trust the government because we are a government that listens to the needs of the people. We are always concerned for the rakyat, so let’s not speculate,” he added. (Ha! Ha! Ha!)

Khairy came out with a supporting statement saying this move shows that the Government is 'people-centric' (another clown in the house) (I am so touched, I feel like I wanna cry...or do I wanna puke?)(Didnt I mention in my previous entry that these kind of statements are forthcoming?)

My gut feeling is telling me that these are temporary General Election gimmicks....Hold your guns, the celebration can wait.........see ya soon......a.h.baharom

Malaysian Politics in the Doldrums: Too Many Clowns

All of a sudden, we have an influx of clowns in Malaysia, coming from the state called Parliament, if other countries are proud of their elected Members of Parliament, we on the other side are rather amused by our Members of Parliament, Nazri Aziz, commented that Berahim Ali is a clown and should not be taken seriously, he further commented that since no riot is recorded or started after his crusade against Christians, that proves that Berahim  is indeed a bemusing Clown trying to amuse the rakyat. Nazri himself  was branded a clown for coming out with this ridiculous statement, since Zunar who was a cartoonist, was apprehended and his comic (Kartun Kini) was banned because the Home Ministry found it to have POTENTIAL to cause riot (although no riot was recorded, although some cases of hysterical laugh being detected spreading like wildfire here and there....mmmhhh no wonder. they (the authorities) might have equated hysteria with riot) , so tell me, is Hishamuddin a clown too?. Then there is another clown, a man in the MCA circle, call the Prez (or is it the Press...?) or known by his acronym CSL (mmmhhh....sounds similar with YTL wink...wink..) who vehemently claimed that the Government cannot remove billion-ringgit subsidies for independent power producers (IPPs) as it is tied up in agreements with them.
“Because the government is tied up in a lot of agreements, this cannot just be abolished like they  say,” He further commented to reporters.
“Then Malaysia will be seen by the world as a government that does not honour its agreements. That’s wrong,” he added. (Well you didn't honour your pledge to the rakyat either)
He said some of the agreements were due to lapse and the government could then start negotiations. (Well in your dreams I guess)
Who signed the agreement?...Why is it so lop-sided?...Why don't you  guys make it public.Why..Why...Why
Saved as usual as the saying goes...the last is the best...the Chief Clown....Peter Chin made a statement saying that, he flatly deny that IPP's are enjoying subsidies from the Government to tune of 19 billion ringgit, according to him that same 19 billion ringgit is a foregone profit of Petronas, for selling gas below the market price...(I am sure most of you do not know whether to laugh or cry, me too). And can anyone tell me how this clown/joker got elected...let alone be a Minister.
Sigh!...my heart goes for all the REAL clowns out there...you are no match for these elected clowns....till we meet again...adios....a.h.baharom

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Positive Economic Growth: Whom are we kidding?

‘In Malaysia, economic growth is projected to moderate to 5.2% yoy in 2011, before rising to 5.5% in 2012. Structural impediments in net exports will drag down overall GDP growth in 2011, while domestic demand likely strong due to supportive government policy measures’.

                                                                                    -Malaysian Institute of Economic Research-

The statement above comes from MIER and is uploaded and available on their official website, to be honest, with the current developments, of the so called global economic climate (as the politicians coined), rising production costs, diminishing purchasing power due to inflation/rising prices, do we seriously still believe that our economy will chalk positive growth? (Whom are we kidding? I don’t think any of us could see this happening). Econ 101 (basic Economics) teaches us that when aggregate supply shift to the left (which we predict would happen with the fast rising cost in production whereby suppliers of these final goods and services faced rising costs and had to reduce their supply at all price levels hence the decrease in aggregate supply, or the left shift of it ). On the other hand, aggregated demand shift to the left because of reduced purchasing power, If consumer expect a recession then they will not spend as much money today as to "save for a rainy day". Thus if spending has decreased, then our aggregate demand must decrease, and shift to left. If either of this happens, the output of the economy will decrease, imagine if both prevails…..
You don’t have to be an Economist or Rocket scientist to predict the end result....it is just not possible to chalk positive economic growth...and only MIER knows what they meant by ‘supportive government policy measures’.
You can fool some people some time..but.....you can’t fool all the people all the time....
bye...for now...a.h.baharom

Sweet For FELDA, Bitter for Rakyat, Fishy for Others

The moment Isa Samad was appointed as the Chairman of FELDA with effext from January 1st 2011, we could sense that FELDA will be used or rather abused, it is indeed one of the 'high end' cash cow for the politicians, and if you could recall,  FELDA became the 'new' sugar king in Malaysia following the RM1.5 billion acquisition in January 2010 of Kuok Brothers-controlled PPB Group Bhd's sugar assets, namely Malayan Sugar Manufacturing Co Bhd (now known as MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd), a sugarcane farm in Perlis, a 50% stake in Kilang Gula Felda Perlis Sdn Bhd (KGFP) and a 20% share in Tradewinds (M) Bhd.

The latest unwrapping news is that FELDA intends to float its sugar business, or in a lay man's term public listing its sugar business. or to be more specific to list MSM, in which it has an 85% stake, around July. The remainder stake is owned by Koperasi Permodalan Felda Malaysia Bhd. The initial public offering, to be managed by CIMB Investment Bank Bhd (mmmhh....sounds fishy?), values the company at RM2.46bil (wow...berniaga gula lagi baik dari berniaga unta) or RM3.50 a share.

MSM houses the sugar plantation and refining operations of Felda. MSM produces close to 60 % of the refined sugar production in Malaysia and is valued at approx MYR 2.3 billion, For 2010 MSM made a profit of RM 232 million.After making these gigantic profits, one would expect FELDA to cushion any adverse cost impact, but NO, the government thinks otherwise, they believe (dont you think so?) FELDA needs more protection and nurturing compared to the rakyat, sigh! ...........ciao..........a.h.baharom

Monday, May 23, 2011

Looming Inflation and General Election: Heading Towards the Perfect Storm?

By now, most of the rakyat are well aware (whether they are well informed or not is another question), it is plain obvious, inflation is looming over our heads. Can we blame the Global economic climate for it, or does it have to do more with our Governments inefficiency in managing the local economy (I strongly vouch for the latter although the so called politicians will beg to differ).

There are a differing school of thoughts on the ways to curb inflation. Bank Negara Malaysia can affect inflation to a significant extent through tools such setting interest rates and through other operations such as the Statutory Reserve Requirement (SRR), as I mentioned in my previous blog entry, both these steps are already being implemented. High interest rates and slow growth of the money supply are the traditional ways through which Bank Negara Malaysia fight or prevent inflation, though they have different approaches. For instance, some follow a symmetrical inflation target while others only control inflation when it rises above a target, whether express or implied. While the Monetarists emphasize keeping the growth rate of money steady, and using monetary policy to control inflation (increasing interest rates, slowing the rise in the money supply as what we are doing). Keynesians (another school of thought, emphasize reducing aggregate demand during economic expansions and increasing demand during recessions to keep inflation stable. Control of aggregate demand can be achieved using both monetary policy and fiscal policy (increased taxation or reduced government spending to reduce demand). Sounds too ‘ textbook’ type of explanation right?. Okay I will try to make it simpler.

Inflation can be caused by two different sources, from the supply side and demand side, the demand pull inflation is a result of strong consumer demand. When many individuals are trying to purchase the same good, the price will inevitably increase. When this happens across the entire economy for all goods, it is known as demand-pull inflation. On the other hand Cost-push inflation develops because the higher cost of production factors decreases in aggregate supply (the amount of total production) in the economy. Because there are fewer goods being produced (supply weakens) and demand for these goods remains consistent, the prices of finished goods increase (inflation).In Malaysia currently we are about to face the cost-push inflation, due to the inevitable rise in petrol, diesel, electricity tariff etc. Having said that what the BNM is doing is called the ‘tightening’ monetary policy.

Then again, this kind of policy will make the Government quite unpopular, and we have the General Election looming, would the Government make populist decision to satisfy the rakyat? But then again it will be nullifying or neutralizing the BNM’s move (Would the present Government bother? My guess is as good as your guess). Signs of these counter moves are already visible; recently the Human Resource Minister gave a strong worded statement that the Government is considering a minimum wage implementation, (don’t get me wrong, I am not against it, I am only against the timing of it, the could have implemented it quite a while ago), don’t you think it will further increase the cost of production and reduce the aggregate supply further and inflation would be worse?.  …..Or are we heading towards a Perfect Storm?

Adios….a.h.Baharom

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Subsidy Cut: Brave or Grave decisions?

While certain quarters have been claiming that subsidy cuts are neccessary and the move have been hailed as a brave decision and the way forward, others are quite sceptical.....I would call the first group 'apple polishers' whilst the sceptics are just being realist.Sugar subsidy cut,,,petrol subsidy cut..diesel subsidy cut...all these have huge impact on the man on the street. Why dont we hear the subsidy cut for IPP? In contrary with the unpopular believe that this is a brave decision, I strongly believe they are making a grave mistake...( or they really don't care about the man on the street?) Yes, I  do agree to a certain extend, (afterall I have to walk the talk...I teach and preach economics...). that subsidies or any kind of market distortion is not good, and will make the market less efficient, but hey, we have to look at the bigger picture here. Or is there a masterplan..with the Central Bank recently increasing the interest rate, increasing the statutory requirement...ah ha...now it is making sense...Bank Negara Malaysia is preparing for the inflation..they are indeed working hand in in glove..with the Government...the subsidy cuts are inevitable...The United States of America...the so called developed state itself is heavily subsidising its agriculture and textile industry, why can,t we keep the subsidies.... And another thing that really disturbs me is when they keep on harping that the Barisan Nasional is subsidizing the rakyat...hellooooo....it is not coming from their party coffers..it is the rakyat's...stop making ridiculuous and evil statements...what is the point of us moving towards a high income country when the wealth is shared among a few percent of elites a.k.a politicians and the majority of the rakyat suffers...the income inequality gap would become wider.......?...... GOD help us...signing off for now...adios..a.h.baharom

Petrol subsidy cut: What's your guess

Suddenly the not so popular minister Dato’ Sri Ismail Sabri bin Yaakob (he is now more unpopular ) set the nation abuzz with his announcement of a possible hike in RON95 petrol (the spin doctors call it subsidy rationalization or realignment...well whatever name you call it,,,,sigh!...its the same). What tickles me is the reaction from some of the consumer groups and NGOs advising the rakyat to make proper planning to prepare themselves (I honestly do not get it)...How do we plan? Employ public transport...rather than drive?..Doesnt these people get it? If it is POSSIBLE for us to use efficient public transport....we WOULD..(and I wonder what happened to the money that we were suppose to save and spend on upgrading the public transport system when Pak Lah increased by a gigantic rise about a couple of years ago). Some factions of so called smart people...or wanna be smart people...(.and trust me they fall flat....with a thump) ...came up with numerous amusing statements.Some said that it is just a small increase...after all the lower income group doesn't consume much...they will be the least to feel the pinch..(get real...you are either dumb or playing dumb) ...then some said...our petrol is still one of the cheapest...and they start comparing with Singapore,Thailand, and Britain...(get a life...come up with some better reasons...the rakyat are getting bored to death with the same one liner ...since. ..what... David Arumugam sang...Andainya aku pergi dulu....or was it much earlier than  that?. What these narrow minded ...ego's as big as a dinosaur's egg...idiots doesn't foresee or just plainly refuse to see is the spiralling effect that these increases in petrol prices have on other goods...such as food and other necessity goods...now you tell me...who will be hit hard? The poor a.k.a lower income group or the rich? Have you forgotten that not so long ago (about a couple of years ago) how prices were inflated? Don't tell me you have forgotten.....For me...it is deeply embedded in my mind...like the Willie Nelson song...You are always on my mind...And what irks me is when these fatso(s) come up with ridiculous statements..like....the Government is finding it hard with the increases in world oil prices...we are net exporters... aren't we suppose to be happy when the world oil price increases while we are still net exporters of oil...I remember reading  somewhere when the oil price slumps...Pak Lah was groaning ...and saying that our revenues are shrinking...What exactly is that we want? For the world oil price to increase or decrease?....Coming back to the main question...is the subsidy cut going to prevail at this point of time...well, my honest opinion...there are 2(two) possibilities..


Possibility 1
The government will cut the subsidy in June, and by October announce a people friendly budget....and will hope and pray the rakyat gets over  the anger and hatred...and announce General Election...and after GE increase the price.....but then the risk is too high, what if the anger and hatred is too much....and they lose....


Possibility 2
As what we can see now....it might be a gimmick...after the announcement...KJ and Zahid Hamidi pleads with the Government...and later Najib will make an important announcement...after taking the rakyats plight, the Government decided not to cut the subsidy....and all the mainstream newspapers will hail him as the the greatest Malaysian Hero.


Whatever it is .....GOD help us...for now...ciao...a.h.baharom

Friday, May 13, 2011

Bank Negara increasing interest rate: wise move?

There were two major announcement by BNM (Bank Negara Malaysia) recently, an increment in SPR (statutory reserve requirement a.k.a kadar rizab wajib), and a simultaneous increment  in OPR (overnight policy rate). SPR increased by 1% to a new rate of 3%, while OPR increased by 0.25% to also become 3%.. Okay, as usual some Econ 101 (I REALLY love my profession :-)). What is SPR?....well as the name suggest, statutorily it is the amount of of interest free deposits that have to be kept by banks in BNM (the percentage means that is the fraction of the total saving by the public in the respective banks that should be kept in BNM and can't be used or disbursed as interest earning loans...phew....).. On the other hand, the OPR is the benchmark or gauge of the interest rates the BNM offers or pays  when intervening on the money market. as a repercussion, the BLR (Basic Lending rate increased by 0.3% to 6.6%. MMmmmhhh....you don't have to be a Super Economist nor a rocket scientist to unearth the implicit meaning behind it.The simple answer or explanation is....our economy is heating up....there is an upward pressure on price...it is inflationary....there are excess money out there...Well, if you are still a bit dazed and confused, sign up for my Principle of Economic Class, or maybe you want a personal tutor (terms and condition apply)...nahhhh....I believe it is quite simple, and if not....then wait for my book Economic for Dummies (work in progress..) But.....I know you must be shaking your head and would love to ask.....hey I thought you showed us the inflation graph in the previous blog entry depicting the inflation rate for Malaysia as stable and within controlled level (yes it WAS from an official source....Department of statistics, Malaysia)....so do you think the people in BNM are cuckoos....or the people of DOS trying to pull a fast one...so is our inflation rate, a myth or fact.....I leave it to your wisdom......Have a pleasant weekend...Ciao.........a.h.baharom ,

Malaysian Inflation Rate: Myth or Fact?

Everywhere I go, everyone I meet, shares the same sentiment,moans and groans about the same problem. Complaining about the ever increasing price and ever diminishing purchasing power, But everytime they turn on the TV to listen to the ministerial announcent or they read on the mainstream newspapers, they are fed with quite opposing news. It leaves them bewildered. They even start to doubt their ownself,  


The figure above shows the inflation rate for Malaysia from January 2008 to March 2011 (you gotta be kidding me) What are the rakyat whining about? It doesnt make any sense at all right, our inflation rate is quite controlled, in fact we even had deflation for the second half of 2009. Okay some Economic 101 lessons (or should I call it Economic for dummies...nahhhh).What is inflation or inflation rate?

In economics, the inflation rate is a measure of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (for example, a consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in price level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal..The inflation rate in Malaysia was last reported at 2.8 percent in March of 2011. From 2005 until 2010, the average inflation rate in Malaysia was 2.77 percent reaching an historical high of 8.50 percent in July of 2008 and a record low of -2.40 percent in July of 2009. Inflation rate refers to a general rise in prices measured against a standard level of purchasing power. The most well known measures of Inflation are the CPI which measures consumer prices, and the GDP deflator, which measures inflation in the whole of the domestic economy. Hmmmm! Basically inflation rate will tell you by how many percent the prices have changed (if positive, prices increased, if negative prices decreased) compared to the previous period.Prices of what...a basket of goods and services of a man on the street. For Malaysia there are almost 460 items in the basket, so it is average of these prices, some may increase, some stay put and some might decrease (no way...). For your kind information items included in the basket are such as:

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages ,Alcoholic beverages, Clothing and footwear,  Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels , TransportTobacco , Restaurants & Hotels , Recreation Services & Culture, Education , Health, Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance, Communication, Milk, Cheese & Eggs, Rice, Bread & Other Cereals, Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate & Confectionery, Oils and Fats, Fish & Seafood, Coffee, Tea, Cocoa,.

Due to space and time constrain, I didnt list all the items...but to just give you the rough idea....take a good look at the list above...the one in bold, I am pretty sure have increased dramatically for the last few years and Ihonestly feels that by no chance our inflation rate will still be at the controlled level, if you think otherwise....I rest my case. I have a funny feeling that the inflation rate is like the API(air pollution index) when the keep repeating that it is still in the acceptable and not hazardous level,and you leave the house and realize that the visibility is so bad that the report just cant be true....till we meet again..adios

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Budget 2012 : The most enticing budget ever?

Two important news reported recently caught my attention,the first was when Najib was asked about the rumors that was going on regarding the next General Election, whether any truth that it will be held on November 11th 2011, Najib smiled neither approving nor denying, the second was when he announced that Budget 2012 will be tabled on October 7th,.Both these issues are closely related. One thing for sure, this will be the last budget tabled before the next General Election, so what do we expect? For once, I am pretty sure this will definitely be a deficit budget,(what else do you expect? Do your honestly think he is willing to take the risk? No way!) This will be his last chance to swing the support and votes towards BN. He will have the welfare and the future of BN closer to his heart, compared to the future and welfare of the people ( I am pretty positive on this).Stop trying to fathom the logic behind it, this is politics, I could visualize the mainstream newspapers reporting it in the following day's edition, applauding it as the Rakyat's budget, generous government's gesture, they might even end up giving the title Bapa Dermawan Malaysia to him (remember, this is indeed Bolehland). The truth is it will hurt our coffers badly and it will take some extreme measures after the General Election (more subsidy cuts?) And I further believe that they will strike it while it is hot....while the Rakyat are applauding....while the Rakyat are rejoicing...they will dissolve the Parliament and announce the GE.(so most prbably 11.11.11 is a good possibility) I really hope the rakyat are smart enough...don't be penny wise ,pound foolish....mark my word...this is not a mambo jumbo prediction...I am no Nostrodamus.....but that is is my Gut feeling...Adios Samba for Now

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Racial Harmony : Are we stuck in the reverse gear?

One could feel the tension while glancing at the front page coverages of national printed medias (to be honest, I stopped reading mainstream newspapers since...mmmhh..wow...it seems to be in the distant memory), Is this the price we have to pay in order to become a high income country or so called developed country. We used to be a model country where everyone was living and leading a harmonious life.Ah, I could recall my early  days in the 70s and 80s,we mix around cheerfully without any hatred or prejudice among each other...sigh! it seems to be diminishing ...well thats how its being painted by all the reports in the mainstream media. Wait a second,or is it a ploy by certain parties to stroke hatred in order to gain some malicious personal or party agenda? One need not look far....look at the books produced by the legendary Lat, or movies by P.Ramlee the legend, you could clearly see the friendliness among characters between different races. So where did we go wrong? Should we blame the education policy or sytem? Or could we place the blame on the political system? Might it be that while climbing up the ladder of becoming a developed and more prosperous and richer country, suddenly we have been overpowered by sheer greed and envy?Whatever it is, it is high time for everyone to sit down together and think it over and try to stop the slide, if not, at the end of the day nobody would gain (except for some greedy,chauvinist minorities). It is high time to shift the gear from reverse to forward...

The Selangor Dilemma:Najib's terrible headache

Najib had sounded the war horn, get Selangor back by all means,(what does that mean?) In a lay man's term...more or less the meaning is.....I don't care what you do, how you do it...but at the end of the day I want Selangor to back with BN..mmmhhh sounds simple...is it that simple.Yes, every now and then you read articles here and there on the bickering among Pakatan members,yes...every now and then you hear that Teresa Kok, Hassan Ali, Ronnie Liu, Dr Xavier and Khalid Ibrahim amongst others not thinking and talking on the same frequency, yes ...often you hear grouses from the people on the unfulfilled election promises, yes...you are exposed to stories of the uneasy and rocky relationship between the Selangor Pakatan Government and the Palace. And yes...you must have read about the hostile relationship between the Government Servants and the state government.Voila! then, it should be a walk in the park.....for Najib and his camaraderie to topple them...Mmm...Nope it is easier said than done.It is not all rosy neither in the Selangor UMNO camp. Currently they have THREE captains aboard. Captain no1..Datuk Md Noh, currently our Agriculture Minister, was also tasked on the so-called Mission recapture Selangor...to term it failure would be an understatement.Then you have the most popular (or was it most unpopular) dentist...Dr Khir Toyo, the former MB of Selangor, who have court cases queing up upon him.And to top that....Ezam Md Noor (or more popularly known as Ezam Kotak) was brought in. Do you know that the rumours has it that he left Keadilan because Izzah rejected his love?) And only God knows where the boxes that he claimed he possessed are now. Loooking at these candidates and their credentials, one could not help being sceptic.Seriously, are these all the leaders that Najib could offer to capture the richest state in Malaysia?Then I could safely say...it is indeed a VERY long shot.....Najib definitely needs strong Panadol or Ponstan for his headache...adios

Monday, May 9, 2011

Not so 'SWEET' news

Most of us by now are aware that sthe price of sugar is increased by 20 cents this morning, making the new price standing at RM2.30. Do yo still remember what was the price in January 2010, RM1.40 (Yes, you got it right.(Hey, stop there, the price was not increased, it was just a subsidy adjustment/realignment/restructuring or whatsoever)..It is a ripoff, the price have shot almost 90%! OMG!But the spin doctors put it in a nice way saying that, the Government saves billion of dollars by cutting these subsidies, and do you know that it is done with the consideration of Malaysian's health as the main point(where do they get these spindoctors from?) It is claimed that the latest subsidy cut alone would save Government RM116 million.
Dont you think there are other mechanisms to control sugar's price, why do you think Robert Kuok ended as one of the richest man in the 'WORLD'...yes....you read it right....some info below to jog your memory....(his biodata, The World's Billionaires (2010): #33 Robert Kuok". Forbes. March 3, 2010. http://www.forbes.com/lists/2010/10/billionaires-2010_Robert-Kuok_ARHN.html.:

Tan Sri Dato Dr Robert Kuok has been the 33rd richest person in the world, Over taking Tan Sri Dato Dr Yeoh Tiong Lay (YTL) , Dato Ananda Krishnan and Dato Brian Tan. Kuok's father arrived in Malaya from Fujian, China at the beginning of the 20th century, and Robert was the youngest of three brothers, born on 6 October 1923, in Johor Bahru. He claims he began in business as an office boy, and later started a business with relatives' support. In fact, upon graduation, he worked in the grains department of Japanese industrial conglomerate Mitsubishi between 1942 and 1945 Kuok senior died in 1948, and Kuok and his two brothers founded Kuok Brothers Sdn Bhd in 1949, trading agricultural commodities. Under the new post-colonial government, Kuok started in the sugar business alongside the government. In 1961, he made a coup by buying cheap sugar from India before the prices shot up. He continued to invest heavily in sugar refineries, controlled 80% of the Malaysian sugar market with production of 1.5 million tonnes, equivalent to 10% of world production, and so earned his nickname "Sugar King of Asia". In 1971, he built the first Shangri-La Hotel, in Singapore. His first foray into Hong Kong property was in 1977, when he acquired a plot of land on the newly reclaimed Tsim Sha Tsui East waterfront, where he built the second hotel, the Kowloon Shangri-La. In 1993, his Kerry Group acquired a 34.9% stake in the South China Morning Post from Murdoch's News Corporation. His companies have investments in many countries, including Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, Mainland China, Indonesia, Fiji and Australia. Businesses in China include 10 bottling companies for Coca Cola, and ownership of the Beijing World Trade Centre. Freight interests include Malaysian Bulk Carriers Berhad and Transmile Group.

His political influence is attested by his having been selected as one of the advisors on Hong Kong's future in the runup to the transfer of sovereignty of Hong Kong, and his minority stake in CITIC Pacific. He was also instrumental in conveying information and setting up the meetings between Malaysia and China governments leading to full diplomatic cross recognition of the two countries. Kuok has married twice and has eight children. His fourth eldest son, which he passed on to be the holder of Shangri-la Hotels Jeffrey Ong Teng Buey married twice. He has one daughter, Alyssa Ong Lei Yeng and three sons, Justin Choo Jia Wei, Bryan Choo Jia Jun and Jon Choo Jia Sheng. Tan Sri Dato Kuok officially retired from the Kerry Group on 1 April 1993. One of his sons, Kuok Khoon Ean, now handles most of the day-to-day operations of his businesses. He currently resides in Hong Kong.

Go figure out how he could manipulate and outmanouvre the Malaysian sugar market...of course with some help from our political brothers....Life is so SWEET for him...not so SWEET for the rest of us...ciao
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Leak here leak there leak everywhere

For every man on the street.. the golden question is...What went wrong for Malaysia? Where did we go wrong? Or is it as per Ku Li's statement, the curse of oil? Our beloved country have gone thru numerous transformation...or in other words, the economic structure have changed drastically...from a poor agrarian country to manufacturing, industrialised, and now towards a high income country...WOW....we must be doing very well (are we?) We must be very well off(are you kidding?)Ask any man on the street..and the familiar sob story will be played over and over again...like Beatles broken record (no pun intended). The stories more or less narrated like this...My father was the sole bread winner, my mother used to be the perfect homemaker...we had NINE siblings...my father was just a clerk earning a meagre salary....but we led a wonderful life...he could provide for everything(well almost everything) NOW both of us working (husband and wife) and earning four figure income...having only TWO kids...yet we are struggling to make ends meet? It leaves most of us scratching our heads to look for answers....well dont' bother....Even if you manage to find an answers. it wouldnt make any sense....Cause someone..(I know what you did last summer) have siphoned all the income (really)?) Economic 101....the economy will prosper as long as the leakages are controlled...(Wait a minute, leakages?) Yeah when the money that belongs to each and every Malaysian is taken out for their (you know whom I meant) greed and wants....what is left for Malaysia...Eco-No-Money....Ever wonder how train gatekeepers,teachers,headmasters(none of my teachers of course ;-)) have gone on to become multimillionaires the moment they enter politics(or pulutikacang!) as the Penangites used to call...What? yeah! Right....they earned it and worked hard for it......like Taib Mahmud (gotta be kidding!)...Khairy Jamalludin(errkkk)...Mukriz(mmmh) Lim Liong Sik Jr(whoa...) the late Zakaria (and the list goes on and on......it would take me 7 days and 6 nights just to list all the names,\.....what if I want to list all their fortunes...(errr...3 years (and thats the minimum, yes, I am not joking)..  OOps  I better hurry... I am starting to leak...till next time ciao...asta la vista