Verify,Verify,Verify

— Ong Kian Ming
The Malaysian Insider
May 24, 2012

MAY 24 — I love this quote from one of the basic rules of journalism — “If your mother says she loves you, check it out”. It’s a warning to journalists to develop a healthy dose of scepticism and to always verify facts even though it’s from a supposedly trustworthy source. I’m not a journalist but I’ve developed my own sense of scepticism after being exposed to academics in the United States, most of whom will jump at every opportunity to dismantle the supposed “proof” or “evidence” behind any new theory. It is perhaps not surprising that we in Malaysia have not developed the same healthy dose of scepticism when presented with a piece of information since we are taught from very young not to question authority figures. But when we are bothered enough to be healthily sceptical and make the extra effort to verify certain facts and figures, the results can be quite enlightening.

Take, for example, the Economic Transformation Programme’s (ETP) Annual Report, which was released in April 2012. According to Exhibit C of this report (pg.8), the nominal Gross National Income in 2011 of RM830 billion surpassed its target of RM797 billion by RM33 billion or 4.1 per cent. In the same exhibit, nominal private investment in 2011 of RM94 billion was shown to have surpassed its target of RM83 billion by RM11 billion or 13.3 per cent. These figures together with other impressive results from the 12 NKEAs led many analysts to praise the ability of the ETP to over-deliver on its targets.

But surprisingly, no one bothered to find out how the GNI and private investment targets were calculated in the first place, especially since the methodology of calculating these projected targets were not revealed in the ETP Annual Report (nor were they revealed in the ETP Roadmap Report which was released in October 2010). If one had bothered to do a bit of research, one would have realised that the RM797 billion nominal GNI target for 2011 seemed a bit low. After all, according to the Ministry of Finance’s Economic Report 2010/2011, which was published together with the 2011 Budget, the projected GNI in 2011 was RM811 billion. This was updated to RM820 billion in the Economic Report 2011/2012, published together with the 2012 Budget.

Some simple maths would have shown that the RM797 billion is even lower than what the target would be using PEMANDU’s target of a 6 per cent real growth rate and a 2.8 per cent inflation rate. Since nominal GNI was RM739 billion in 2010, a nominal growth rate of 8.8 per cent would give us a target of RM804 billion, not RM797 billion (try it out for yourself, if you don’t believe me). Only with a nominal growth rate of 7.8 per cent, which is far lower than what the Ministry of Finance was projecting in 2010 as well as in 2011, would one arrive at the RM797 billion.

In addition, a little bit of triangulation would have allowed us to see that the “achievement” of surpassing the nominal GNI target by 4 per cent is not a great accomplishment given that the real GDP growth rate of 5.1 per cent was at the bottom end of 5 per cent to 6 per cent real GDP growth rate projected by MoF in the Economic Report 2010/2011 and the 5 per cent to 5.5 per cent real GDP growth rate projection in the Economic Report 2010/2011. In fact, real GNI of RM540.9 billion was actually lower than the RM546 billion projected in the Economic Report 2010/2011 and the RM545.5 billion projected in the Economic Report 2011/2012. One’s suspicion would also have been raised by the fact that the real GDP growth rate of 5.1 per cent was shown in Exhibit 3 even though the economic output targets are expressed in GNI terms. Might it have something to do with the fact that real GNI growth was just 4.7 per cent in 2011, far below the 6 per cent real growth target set by the ETP?

What about the RM83 billion private investment target? I found problems with this figure too. In the MoF’s Economic Report 2010/2011, private investment was projected to be RM86 billion in 2011. This was raised to RM94 billion in the Economic Report 2011/2012. A private investment target of RM83 billion assumes an increase in private investment of a mere RM4.3 billion or a 5.5 per cent increase from RM78.7 billion in 2010, lower than the projected nominal GNI growth rate. It seems quite unrealistic to assume that private investment would grow at less than the overall growth rate given that most companies would want to investment in new equipment and infrastructure when the economic is growing. (Note that private investment here refers to gross fixed capital formation such as buying new plant equipment and transportation vehicles.) Furthermore, under the 10th Malaysia Plan, nominal private investment was projected to grow at 16.2 per cent (Appendix, Table 4, pg362) which would give a target of RM91.4 billion in 2011 rather than the RM83 billion shown in the ETP Annual Report. The private investment figures for 2011 were indeed impressive. It grew by 19.4 per cent in nominal terms and 14.4 per cent in real terms surpassing the 10th MP targets of 16.2 per cent and 12.8 per cent respectively. But it grew by only 3.2 per cent above the 10th MP nominal growth target and not by 13.3 per cent, using the RM83 billion target indicated in the ETP Annual Report.

I must admit that I had help in making these calculations and clarifying some concepts. I emailed a few friends who were economists. I also emailed a Bank Negara representative when I spotted an error in their private investment figure for 2011 which was published in their Monthly Statistical Bulletin (they corrected it almost immediately). I emailed a director in the Economic Planning Unit (EPU) to ask about the private investment figures and targets in the 10th MP (he also responded almost immediately). Finally, I emailed two directors at PEMANDU to ask how they calculated their GNI and private investment targets. Sadly, almost two weeks later, I have yet to hear from them.

Perhaps what surprised me most is that all of the analyst reports I read did not even question the GNI and private investment targets as reported by the ETP. All of them praised the ETP for overachieving their targets including the GNI and private investment targets. I expected more from experienced economists whom I assumed would be very familiar with economic data and forecasting. Perhaps they should also take heed of the same basic rule outlined at the start of this article and develop a healthy scepticism towards information that is presented to them?

* This article first appeared The Edge Financial Daily on May 24, 2012.

Teacher: What would be the best definition?

"The mediocre teacher tells, the good teacher explains, the superior teacher demonstrates, the great teacher inspires." - William Arthur Ward

The word teacher contains the word teach, but the role of the teacher to teach can be an oversimplification of the educator's role. Teacher - Its narrow definition would just run around the confines of the school setting. It may remind you of the old gray haired man/woman talking in a child-like manner while he/she teaches you how to write the alphabet. It may be your stern looking professor who tortures you emotionally and mentally with his roaring voice and his pile of mind boggling examinations in your university. But the teacher should not always be boxed in a situation that can only be offered by the best schools. Teachers can spring out from almost every corner of the world and from every experience we are faced with.

To be a teacher takes many qualities, such as having patience, understanding, and having a sense of values while being able to recognize the changing dynamics in the world that is outside the classroom. It's not just being able to stand up in front of students and being able to teach them various subjects. Whether or not you want to realize it, what you're doing will help mold and shape them in some way in their lives. By definition in its broadest sense, a teacher for me, is a person or an experience that had left a mark in our lives. They have been examples for us as we journey through the stages of life from the moment we first opened our eyes to witness the world around us until our very last breath in our golden days.

A teacher is someone who sees what can be accomplished, not what cannot be accomplished. Teachers know that to expect their students to become lifelong learners they must be willing to do the same. A teacher also has to play a number of roles in order to be successful i.e. a friend, a mentor, a role model, a teacher, a parent etc. Hence defining a teacher is an uphill task. The definition of a teacher is to define the indefinable. Almost as wide ranging, yet individualized as asking, what is a parent? A teacher is a guide, a mentor, a confident, a friend, a disciplinarian, an informer, a provider of inspiration and imagination. A teacher is someone who knows when to intervene, and when to stand back and allow them to try for themselves. Allow them to fail and learn from their mistakes.

A teacher is more than someone who passes on knowledge. It is the interaction, the relationship, the understanding and encouragement to enable a person or child to reach the full potential. This should not be merely being able to pass tests or exams but developing fully in all areas as a rounded person who reaches and surpasses their full potential and also develops a life long love of learning and discovery.

Happy Teachers Day! To all my wonderful teachers...may Allah bless you

Note:- materials for this article is collected from various source on the web and compiled.

A.H.Baharom

Malaysia’s sad media

– Sam Peh
The Malaysian Insider
May 12, 2012

MAY 12 – Even during the most dictatorial days of Mahathir Mohamad, the mainstream media has not been this inept, corrupt, dishonest and even clumsy.

But during the Najib reign, the New Straits Times, the Star and the Malay language papers have crawled to depths never before experienced. Take today’s NST.

Yesterday more than 1,200 lawyers voted at a Bar Council EGM to condemn police brutality at Bersih 3.0 but the Umno owned paper focussed on 16 little known lawyers who dissented. And to make matters worse, the report focussed on whether the quorum was reached (which it was) and whether all those who turned up were lawyers. What rubbish reporting.

I am making public this dishonest reporting because this is the stock in trade of the NST . Remember how the paper tried to stitch up Lim Guan Eng as unpatriotic and Senator Xenophon as anti-Islam.

In Malaysia, the health of newspaper follow that of who occupies Putrajaya and it is no coincidence that the NST and Star have stopped being newspapers and have become ragsheets for wrapping fish.

Najib Razak wants his papers supine. The Star will try and sound balanced but make no mistake, the editors and journalists at the MCA-owned paper are just as guilty of selling innuendo and vile stuff as news.

So my advice to the Bar Council is this. Start a boycott of the mainstream media. Team up with Bersih and other NGOs and get people to stop buying the paper. I have stopped buying papers and only read it online when someone draws attention to some ridiculous report.

The Bar Council has the moral standing to lead a campaign against the media. You have nothing to lose because you are already being demonised.

There is no downside because any newspaper which presents Perkasa, Zahrin as worthy of coverage does not deserve any support. Only contempt.

Alfdin Shauki, Harun Salim Bachik and Johan: Hitting an unbelievable and sickening low

The latest comedy or parody staged by these 'jokers' poking fun at the BERSIH 3.0 event is really sickening. It doesn't have any taste, neither it is acceptable. It really proves that these comedians (I am not sure whether they deserve to be called one, they are basically apple polishers) would go to unimaginable lengths to ensure lucrative airtime, or as our famous National laureate once said, 'carma' (cari makan).

While it is indeed one of the worst kept secret, these jokers are hardcore loyalist UMNO supporters, even dragging together the organization they are entrusted to spearhead (SENIMAN), which is the umbrella body of art performers., it is unprofessional, unbecoming and nauseating to poke fun and ridicule the rakyat this way. it is high time for us to remind them that the career didn't take off and pick up solely because of the UMNO members but also millions of other supporters.

Let us start a boycott on all of the films they are starring, any reality shows they are involved, Say NO to all of their activities,.in order for them to wake up from their 'sweet dream'

A.H.Baharom

Lawak Terlampau Afldin Shauki, Harun Salim Bachik dan Johan: Agak Meloyakan, Jom Boikot

Pementasan komedi atau parodi terbaru Afldin Shauki, Harun Salim Bachik dan Johan  bertajuk 'Bangkang dari Longkang boleh dikatakan agak melampau dan pasti mengguris hati ramai peminat seni tanahair, ianya terlalu low kualiti, menghina tahap kematangan dan minda rakyat Malaysia. Ianya hanya layak dibakulsampahkan.

Adalah pengetahuan umum bahawa mereka adalah ahli UMNO yang tegar dan Seniman, iaitu persatuan para penggiat seni yang mereka terajui telah dilacurkan demi 'carma'(cari makan), tetapi kali ini apa yang dilakukan adalah terlalu jijik dan meloyakan. Kalau ye pun nak membodek, ini bukan caranya, mungkin mereka alpa, atau sengaja lupa bahawa selama ini karier mereka berkembang bukan semata-mata diundi, diikuti dan diangkat oleh ahli UMNO semata-mata, dan secra ikhlasnya saya fikir mereka ini perlu disedarkan. Saya ingin mengambil peluang ini untuk memulakan 'boikot' secara peribadi, dan juga mengajak para peminat mereka yang bukan ahli UMNO untuk turut memboikot segala rancangan yang mereka sertai, katakan TIDAK kepada filem yang mereka bintangi, katakan TIDAK kepada rancangan yang mereka hoskan..

A.H.Baharom

Minimum Wage announcement: Disparity that doesn't make sense

The minimum wage of RM900.00 per month as per the announcement by Najib, as expected received kudos from the backbenchers (or is it the back-benders?), and at the same time receiving lukewarm responses from the man in the street. I am not going to discuss about the need or the benefits of the minimum wage at this point of time (I have blogged about it previously and will try to rationalize it in coming blogs), but one thing that left me astounded is the disparity in the minimum wage between Peninsular Malaysia, and East Malaysia (Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan).

While it is a common knowledge that, generally, the price of goods and services in East Malaysia is comparatively higher by about 10% to 15% (for those of you who are not aware of this, I will give you a simple example, just take a look at the price of newspapers or magazines, there would always be two prices, one for West Malaysia and one for East Malaysia which would be comparatively higher), in the minimum wage thas was anounced, they get a comparatively lower minimum wage, albeit by RM100.00. Just do the Maths, it doesn;t tally up, it doesn't make any sense. but then again, what do you expect from a government that is BaNcrupt of ideas, innovative and creative ideas that is.

It is believed that the lower minimum wage that was announced for our fellow citizens in the East Malaysia,is in order to protect the producers/firms/cronies, just ask KJ.s parrot, Rahman Dahlan @ Kota Belud, the man who is full of flimsy justification on any matters or issues, but the again how are you going to do justice for the consumers/households? They ( the people in East Malaysia) has a higher general price, which translates to lower purchasing power, or in other words lower real wage or wealth effect, yet they end up getting a comparatively lower minimum wage. Don't you think they are shortchanged?

God, have mercy and help us (including our brothers and sisters across the South China sea)

Adios for now.........A.H.Baharom